Oprah Gives Obama an Extra Million
Votes, that is. A new study suggests that Oprah’s endorsement was responsible for approximately 1,000,000 additional votes for Obama.
A plug from Oprah can turn a book into a best seller (Anna Karenina & Love in the Time of Cholera increased 100% immediately after their selection into Oprah’s Book Club) and any movie into a blockbuster, but can it decide the presidency?
The study suggests yes - her plug already decided the Primaries. In the 45 state + DC sample size (the remaining states were those where Obama didn’t appear on the ballot, or that don’t report county-level voting information), Obama had 278,966 more votes than Clinton. Considering the study’s 95% confidence interval (that’s a stats measure, meaning they are 95% sure the number of votes Oprah contributed to Obama’s campaign is in this interval), which is 423,123 to 1,596,995, Oprah’s vote was responsible for the determining the winner of the popular vote. Keep in mind, however, this sample spread is much larger than the actual popular vote spread, and popular vote does not necessarily win the primary.
When she began her “political activist” career, Oprah told Larry King in an interview in May 2007, “My support of [Obama] is probably worth more than any check that I could write.”
Indeed, it’s worth 1,015,559 votes for Obama. A crude estimate shows that’s 5.8% of the total 17,535,458 popular votes he received in the Democratic primaries. Considering he spent about $270 million* on the Primary campaign, Oprah’s endorsement may be worth approximately $16 million. Yep, probably worth more than any check she would write. Obama/Winfrey 2008?
*Number may not be accurate, but is based on sources projecting $265 & $285M.
