How Much You Think You Know
Here’s a little test about your “secondary knowledge,” which is how much you think you know. Create a 90% confidence interval for the above business facts. Specifically, pick a low point and a high point within which you are 90% sure the answer to the business fact lies.
For example, if I’m asked to estimate what percent of the world’s population the US constitutes, I’d say my 90% confidence range is 3 to 7 percent. (answer: 4.56%).
So without using any references, try it for yourself! Results and explanation to follow.
