What I Learned Today

19th February 2008

Post with 1 note

a different kind of game theory

Allen Iverson – great basketball player, right? I think most people would say he’s one of the best players in the NBA. According to an economic algorithm, that may not be so.

In the book “The Wages of Wins,” economists use what they call Win Score to weigh the relative value of fouls, rebounds, turnovers, shots taken, etc, to determine a basketball player’s relative performance.

Evaluating a basketball player’s performance is a difficult endeavor given the relativity of the team environment. As Malcom Gladwell (you know, Blink and The Tipping Point) points out in his 2005 New Yorker article, Iverson’s prolificacy could mean “that he is a brilliant player. It could mean that he’s selfish and takes shots rather than passing the ball… maybe his success reflects the fact that everyone else on his team excels at getting rebounds and forcing the other team to turn over the ball.”

Either way, according to Win Score: (Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers - ½Free Throw Attempts - ½Personal Fouls) / Minutes = Win Score per Minute

• during Iverson’s best season (04-05, relative to the 2005 publication) he was ranked 36th in the league.
• In his worst season (03-04), he was the 207th best player in the league.
• On average for his career by 05, Allen Iverson was ranked 116th. See his current win score stats here.

Gladwell comments “It’s hard not to wonder, after reading ‘The Wages of Wins,’ about the other instances in which we defer to the evaluations of experts. Boards of directors vote to pay CEOs tens of millions of dollars, ostensibly because they believe—on the basis of what they have learned over the years by watching other CEOs—that they are worth it. But so what?” 

Here’s a great link to Gladwell’s articles from the New Yorker since 1996.

Tagged: economics