The Economics of Football
“There has been a trend in the last seven or eight seasons that the team winning the toss in overtime wins the game. That advantage of receiving the ball first is becoming unbalanced.” - former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue
Is it right for a team to get possession by the random outcome of a coin flip, then score – and win – without its opponent getting a chance to counter? Some economists from Colombia and Berkeley wrote an Economic Discussion of it last year. “Economic theory suggests natural solutions to this problem” the authors say, providing two suggestions (and dissecting each with crazy economic formulas like this one ∫xεXd min{∫(a(x)+α(s1,s2))dL(s1|x), ∫s1(b(x)+β(s1,s2))dL(s1|x)} dK(x).(1)):
- The coaches of each team bid on the yard line from its own end line, with the low bidder winning and starting its offense at that bid.
- One team chooses the starting yard line and the other team chooses whether it will take possession or cede & let their opponents (who chose the starting yard line) have possession.
In late 2003 the WSJ had an article that compiled some other OT proposals. They are the following:
- Move the Kickoff: Move the kickoff from the 40 instead of the 30. The result will usually be a touchback, which cuts the receiving team’s advantage roughly in half.
- Dueling Kickoffs: To begin overtimes, each team will kick off to each other on consecutive plays. The team that advances the ball furthest will have possession at the point on the field where the ball was advanced. Sudden death is preserved.
- Give Both Teams the Ball: Each team gets one possession in even order after the coin flip. If the team that wins the coin flip scores on its first possession, then the opposing team is given one possession to try to score themselves, and so on.
- NCAA Rules: Each team is given one possession from its opponent’s 25 year line. The team leading after both possessions is the winner. If the teams remain tied, a coin flip determines the possession order.
- Pick a Number: between 1 and 10. Closest team wins the game
Okay, that last one isn’t real. But the others are and seem like pretty good ideas.